I really like Halloween, particularly seeing how a lot enjoyable the children have. However for financially conscious adults, the actual chills don’t come from ghosts or goblins. They arrive from spreadsheets, shock payments, and market meltdowns that flip your web price chart right into a horror film graph.
After over three many years of learning, working by way of, and writing about monetary ups and downs, I’ve realized essentially the most horrifying moments don’t come from boogeymen, they arrive from ourselves. We like to create self-inflicted monetary ache for some motive.
Within the spirit of the season, listed below are eight of the scariest monetary conditions that may hang-out anybody. Some I’ve lived by way of personally. Others I’ve narrowly escaped with psychological scars.
Let’s dive in, should you dare!
1. The Nightmare of Job Loss With out Financial savings
There’s nothing like strolling into your boss’s workplace on a Friday afternoon and listening to, “Can we chat?” Out of the blue your pulse quickens, your palms sweat, and your monetary fight-or-flight instincts kick in.
For those who’ve been residing paycheck-to-paycheck, a job loss is like being dropped right into a haunted forest with no flashlight, no map, and a pockets filled with expired coupons.
I’ve witnessed this concern firsthand. Colleagues blindsided by layoffs through the dot-com bust and the Nice Monetary Disaster went from luxurious automobiles and glad hours to promoting furnishings on Craigslist in months. Life comes in any respect of us fast.
The remedy:
All the time have no less than six months of residing bills in money or secure investments. I desire one 12 months for true peace of thoughts. It would really feel overly conservative throughout good instances, however that’s precisely when complacency creeps in. Consider it as your garlic necklace in opposition to monetary vampires.
2. The Horror of Large Debt With No Finish in Sight
Debt is that sneaky villain who refuses to die. Simply once you assume you’re debt-free, one other mortgage crawls again from the shadows — pupil loans, automobile funds, or a house fairness line that appeared like “free cash” on the time.
I nonetheless keep in mind once I took on seven-figure mortgage debt at age 28. The joys of shopping for property rapidly became anxiousness as soon as I noticed how lengthy I’d be chained to that quantity. When the 2008 monetary disaster hit three years later, my debt felt like a ball and chain wrapped in flames. Fortunately, I used to be in a position to promote the property and escape with a revenue 12.5 years later.
Shopper debt is even worse, as a result of it not often comes with appreciating property. That 85-inch TV or uncommon sneaker drop would possibly convey short-term pleasure, however the curiosity funds linger like a curse. Bank card rates of interest are so excessive that not even the nice Warren Buffet has been in a position to outperform them. And he is price $100+ billion.
The remedy:
Assault high-interest debt first, then snowball your funds. Lastly, cancel down all of your bank cards and maintain the one with lowest rate of interest and advantages. For those who can’t sleep at evening, that’s your physique telling you your leverage is just too excessive.
And keep in mind, no person posts their bank card assertion on Instagram. Don’t evaluate your spending to different folks’s spotlight reels.
3. The Poltergeist of a Market Crash Proper After You Retire
Think about working for many years, lastly reaching your “freedom quantity,” after which… a market crash wipes out 40% of your portfolio. It’s the final word merciless twist, a lifetime of self-discipline, undone in a single 12 months.
That is the dreaded sequence of returns danger, and it’s one of many largest fears amongst retirees. I felt it in early 2020 when COVID despatched the markets plunging. Even after years of writing about investing, I questioned all the things: my allocations, my timing, even my resolution to retire in 2012.
At one level, it felt like we have been heading into one other international monetary disaster once more. However then I made a decision to take a chilly bathe and face my fears by writing, How To Predict A Inventory Market Backside Like Nostradamus, and purchase. If the constructing was going to burn down, I needed to exit swinging.
The remedy:
Make sure that to evaluation your web price and stress-test your investments by way of bear market eventualities earlier than retiring. Since bear markets final about 10 months on common, guarantee you might have sufficient money reserves to comfortably climate the storm with out promoting property at a loss.
Bear markets are non permanent, however panic promoting is everlasting. In case you have the pliability to decide on your retirement date, it’s really higher to retire throughout a bear market than a bull market. Retiring in a downturn means your funds have already been battle-tested, with probably upside forward. Not a lot should you retire when all the things appears to be like rosy.
In 2000, 2009, 2020, and 2022, I re-learned the identical lesson: concern fades, remorse lasts. As an alternative of promoting, discover ways to purchase the dip. Those that stayed invested ultimately recovered, and at the moment are sitting at record-high ranges of wealth.
4. The Curse of the Medical Emergency
You’ll be able to plan for all the things, besides when your physique decides to revolt. A sudden well being scare can drain financial savings sooner than any bear market.
One ER go to can price hundreds, even with insurance coverage. Our 15-minute ambulance journey for our daughter price us $3,500 till we fought it. A critical analysis? Perhaps $100,000. It’s no shock medical debt stays one of many main causes of chapter in America.
Our healthcare system is totally damaged. Simply take a look at these three choices for a self-employed husband with a spouse and 4 youngsters — he has to shell out no less than $43,000 a 12 months in premiums only for the privilege of paying one other $20,000 out of pocket for healthcare!
The remedy:
Even should you’re younger and wholesome. At the least get the most cost effective plan you may to cowl you from disasters. Max out your HSA should you can because it’s the very best triple-tax-advantaged account out there. For those who’re self-employed, take into account hiring no less than one worker — perhaps your partner — so you may qualify for a bunch healthcare plan and deduct the associated fee.
And keep in mind: prevention is your greatest funding. Eat higher, transfer every day, and get your physicals yearly after age 40. For those who’re on ACA market insurance coverage, watch your AGI fastidiously. Go even a number of hundred {dollars} over the subsidy restrict, and also you’ll really feel such as you’ve seen a monetary ghost.
And please, for the love of all that’s good, get an inexpensive time period life insurance coverage coverage when you’ve got youngsters. Defending them is your primary monetary accountability — even after you’re gone.
My spouse and I every obtained matching 20-year time period life insurance coverage insurance policies by way of Policygenius. It was fast, inexpensive, and gave us prompt peace of thoughts understanding our children can be OK it doesn’t matter what occurs to us.
5. The Haunting of Way of life Inflation
Way of life creep is the friendliest-looking ghost, till it strangles your financial savings charge. You get a elevate, and all of a sudden your automobile feels outdated, your own home feels small, and coach class appears like punishment.
I fell into this entice myself. Once I first began making good cash in finance in 2007, I justified each indulgence — the brand new automobile, the flamboyant dinners, even a Lake Tahoe apartment I did not want. Much more lately, I bought an costly home in 2023, once we have been completely proud of the one we had bought in 2020. I wasn’t any happier; simply financially constrained at the next degree.
The remedy:
Deal with each elevate prefer it doesn’t exist. Save or make investments it earlier than you even see it. By no means extrapolate your earnings to the moon like I did in 2006.
Remind your self that consolation is the enemy of development. Discover ways to endure with gratitude! Satirically, the toughest a part of monetary independence will not be getting there, it’s sustaining self-discipline after you arrive.
6. Quitting Your Job With No Backup Plan
Would you soar out of a airplane and not using a parachute? In fact not! Quitting your job and not using a plan isn’t any totally different. You’re both wealthy or reckless should you do. Too many individuals storm out of jobs they dislike, generally with out even two weeks’ discover, pushed by impulse slightly than intention.
Some even mistakenly imagine Coast FIRE is a authentic type of monetary independence, however it’s not. It’s really the most harmful early retirement technique should you take it actually. Coast FIRE isn’t any totally different than a employee saving for retirement, however who nonetheless does not have practically sufficient passive earnings.
I’ve coached numerous folks by way of job transitions. The widespread thread amongst those that wrestle most? They stop emotionally, not strategically. They don’t negotiate a severance, they don’t plan their subsequent transfer, and inside months, they’re extra confused than earlier than.
The remedy:
By no means stop empty-handed. Negotiate a severance bundle if attainable. It’s how I left my six-figure finance job in 2012 and purchased myself years of freedom to put in writing and construct Monetary Samurai.
That one strategic exit gave me the boldness to start out a household and dwell life on my phrases. For those who can depart a job with a monetary cushion and your dignity intact, you’ll have conquered one of many scariest transitions of all.
For those who nonetheless must work, do not depart your job with out one other one lined up. With the quantity of layoffs occurring within the title of better productiveness, you could by no means have the ability to discover a comparable one once more.
7. By no means Taking the Dangers You Ought to Have
Because the years cross, you’ll remorse extra of the stuff you didn’t do greater than those you tried. Life has a means of accelerating once you’re not wanting. You’re 18 at some point and 48 the subsequent.
In ten years, you would grasp a talent, construct a enterprise, or utterly reinvent your life. In twenty, you would change your loved ones’s trajectory ceaselessly by constructing multi-generational wealth. However none of that occurs if concern or satisfaction maintain you frozen.
The remedy:
Ask your self: If this have been my final 12 months, what would I remorse not doing? Then begin doing it now.
For me, my largest remorse was ready too lengthy to have youngsters. I can’t change the previous, however I can management my well being, vitality, and perspective to maximise the time I do have with them. Each day I spend with my household is a reminder that motion, even imperfect motion, virtually all the time beats hesitation.
8. Not Letting Your Partner Be Free Too
Some of the unsettling monetary eventualities is when one accomplice reaches freedom whereas the opposite stays trapped. You’ve stop your job, negotiated your severance, and live your greatest life. However your partner continues to be grinding away, exhausted and resentful.
True wealth isn’t about one particular person’s independence; it’s about shared freedom.
The remedy:
Create a joint plan. Set concrete web price, passive earnings, and retirement targets collectively. Evaluation them month-to-month, not yearly.
When you hit your numbers, let the older, extra burned-out accomplice step away first. Attempt a “one in, one out” trial 12 months to see how twin early retirement feels. You’ll be able to all the time return to work or discover supplemental earnings if wanted. However you’ll by no means remorse giving your partner an opportunity to breathe.
Freedom is sweetest when shared. Let your partner out of the dungeon!
Closing Ideas: Worry as a Monetary Superpower
Just a little little bit of concern is wholesome. Actually, concern is the primary ingredient crucial to attain monetary independence and keep that means. It retains you humble, alert, and motivated. The objective isn’t to get rid of concern, it’s to harness it.
For those who can anticipate the scariest eventualities — job loss, debt, market crashes, well being points, poor choices, or relationship misalignments — you may design defenses earlier than they strike.
So this Halloween, as an alternative of watching one other slasher flick, evaluation your funds like I’ve. Examine your emergency fund, rebalance your portfolio, replace your will, and eventually discuss to your partner about your shared objectives.
It may not sound thrilling, however being financially unshakeable as you stroll by way of each economically haunted home feels fairly rattling good.
Reader Questions
- What’s the scariest monetary scenario you’ve ever confronted, and the way did you overcome it?
- Have you ever ever stop your job and not using a plan — and in that case, how did it end up?
- What monetary “monster” are you most afraid of — job loss, medical payments, debt, or way of life creep?
- What are you doing in the present day to make your self extra financially unscareable?
- What’s one monetary mistake that also haunts you — and what did you study from it?
Get An Reasonably priced Life Insurance coverage Coverage
Of all of the actually terrifying monetary conditions, the scariest one by far is leaving this earth too quickly whereas your youngsters nonetheless depend upon you. As dad and mom, our primary mission is to outlive and supply till our kids can stand on their very own — ideally by way of faculty. Failing to guard them, even accidentally, can be our biggest failure.
That’s why I strongly suggest getting a time period life insurance coverage coverage when you’ve got debt or dependents. My spouse and I every obtained matching 20-year time period insurance policies by way of Policygenius — it was fast, inexpensive, and gave us speedy peace of thoughts understanding our children will likely be OK, it doesn’t matter what occurs to us.
Subscribe To Monetary Samurai
Choose up a duplicate of my USA TODAY nationwide bestseller, Millionaire Milestones: Easy Steps to Seven Figures. I’ve distilled over 30 years of economic expertise that will help you construct extra wealth than 94% of the inhabitants—and break away sooner. Amazon is having a tremendous vacation sale.
Hear and subscribe to The Monetary Samurai podcast on Apple or Spotify. I interview consultants of their respective fields and talk about a number of the most fascinating matters on this web site. Your shares, scores, and opinions are appreciated.
To expedite your journey to monetary freedom, be part of over 60,000 others and subscribe to the free Monetary Samurai e-newsletter. It’s also possible to get my posts in your e-mail inbox as quickly as they arrive out by signing up right here. Monetary Samurai is among the many largest independently-owned private finance web sites, established in 2009. Every little thing is written based mostly on firsthand expertise and experience.
I really like Halloween, particularly seeing how a lot enjoyable the children have. However for financially conscious adults, the actual chills don’t come from ghosts or goblins. They arrive from spreadsheets, shock payments, and market meltdowns that flip your web price chart right into a horror film graph.
After over three many years of learning, working by way of, and writing about monetary ups and downs, I’ve realized essentially the most horrifying moments don’t come from boogeymen, they arrive from ourselves. We like to create self-inflicted monetary ache for some motive.
Within the spirit of the season, listed below are eight of the scariest monetary conditions that may hang-out anybody. Some I’ve lived by way of personally. Others I’ve narrowly escaped with psychological scars.
Let’s dive in, should you dare!
1. The Nightmare of Job Loss With out Financial savings
There’s nothing like strolling into your boss’s workplace on a Friday afternoon and listening to, “Can we chat?” Out of the blue your pulse quickens, your palms sweat, and your monetary fight-or-flight instincts kick in.
For those who’ve been residing paycheck-to-paycheck, a job loss is like being dropped right into a haunted forest with no flashlight, no map, and a pockets filled with expired coupons.
I’ve witnessed this concern firsthand. Colleagues blindsided by layoffs through the dot-com bust and the Nice Monetary Disaster went from luxurious automobiles and glad hours to promoting furnishings on Craigslist in months. Life comes in any respect of us fast.
The remedy:
All the time have no less than six months of residing bills in money or secure investments. I desire one 12 months for true peace of thoughts. It would really feel overly conservative throughout good instances, however that’s precisely when complacency creeps in. Consider it as your garlic necklace in opposition to monetary vampires.
2. The Horror of Large Debt With No Finish in Sight
Debt is that sneaky villain who refuses to die. Simply once you assume you’re debt-free, one other mortgage crawls again from the shadows — pupil loans, automobile funds, or a house fairness line that appeared like “free cash” on the time.
I nonetheless keep in mind once I took on seven-figure mortgage debt at age 28. The joys of shopping for property rapidly became anxiousness as soon as I noticed how lengthy I’d be chained to that quantity. When the 2008 monetary disaster hit three years later, my debt felt like a ball and chain wrapped in flames. Fortunately, I used to be in a position to promote the property and escape with a revenue 12.5 years later.
Shopper debt is even worse, as a result of it not often comes with appreciating property. That 85-inch TV or uncommon sneaker drop would possibly convey short-term pleasure, however the curiosity funds linger like a curse. Bank card rates of interest are so excessive that not even the nice Warren Buffet has been in a position to outperform them. And he is price $100+ billion.
The remedy:
Assault high-interest debt first, then snowball your funds. Lastly, cancel down all of your bank cards and maintain the one with lowest rate of interest and advantages. For those who can’t sleep at evening, that’s your physique telling you your leverage is just too excessive.
And keep in mind, no person posts their bank card assertion on Instagram. Don’t evaluate your spending to different folks’s spotlight reels.
3. The Poltergeist of a Market Crash Proper After You Retire
Think about working for many years, lastly reaching your “freedom quantity,” after which… a market crash wipes out 40% of your portfolio. It’s the final word merciless twist, a lifetime of self-discipline, undone in a single 12 months.
That is the dreaded sequence of returns danger, and it’s one of many largest fears amongst retirees. I felt it in early 2020 when COVID despatched the markets plunging. Even after years of writing about investing, I questioned all the things: my allocations, my timing, even my resolution to retire in 2012.
At one level, it felt like we have been heading into one other international monetary disaster once more. However then I made a decision to take a chilly bathe and face my fears by writing, How To Predict A Inventory Market Backside Like Nostradamus, and purchase. If the constructing was going to burn down, I needed to exit swinging.
The remedy:
Make sure that to evaluation your web price and stress-test your investments by way of bear market eventualities earlier than retiring. Since bear markets final about 10 months on common, guarantee you might have sufficient money reserves to comfortably climate the storm with out promoting property at a loss.
Bear markets are non permanent, however panic promoting is everlasting. In case you have the pliability to decide on your retirement date, it’s really higher to retire throughout a bear market than a bull market. Retiring in a downturn means your funds have already been battle-tested, with probably upside forward. Not a lot should you retire when all the things appears to be like rosy.
In 2000, 2009, 2020, and 2022, I re-learned the identical lesson: concern fades, remorse lasts. As an alternative of promoting, discover ways to purchase the dip. Those that stayed invested ultimately recovered, and at the moment are sitting at record-high ranges of wealth.
4. The Curse of the Medical Emergency
You’ll be able to plan for all the things, besides when your physique decides to revolt. A sudden well being scare can drain financial savings sooner than any bear market.
One ER go to can price hundreds, even with insurance coverage. Our 15-minute ambulance journey for our daughter price us $3,500 till we fought it. A critical analysis? Perhaps $100,000. It’s no shock medical debt stays one of many main causes of chapter in America.
Our healthcare system is totally damaged. Simply take a look at these three choices for a self-employed husband with a spouse and 4 youngsters — he has to shell out no less than $43,000 a 12 months in premiums only for the privilege of paying one other $20,000 out of pocket for healthcare!
The remedy:
Even should you’re younger and wholesome. At the least get the most cost effective plan you may to cowl you from disasters. Max out your HSA should you can because it’s the very best triple-tax-advantaged account out there. For those who’re self-employed, take into account hiring no less than one worker — perhaps your partner — so you may qualify for a bunch healthcare plan and deduct the associated fee.
And keep in mind: prevention is your greatest funding. Eat higher, transfer every day, and get your physicals yearly after age 40. For those who’re on ACA market insurance coverage, watch your AGI fastidiously. Go even a number of hundred {dollars} over the subsidy restrict, and also you’ll really feel such as you’ve seen a monetary ghost.
And please, for the love of all that’s good, get an inexpensive time period life insurance coverage coverage when you’ve got youngsters. Defending them is your primary monetary accountability — even after you’re gone.
My spouse and I every obtained matching 20-year time period life insurance coverage insurance policies by way of Policygenius. It was fast, inexpensive, and gave us prompt peace of thoughts understanding our children can be OK it doesn’t matter what occurs to us.
5. The Haunting of Way of life Inflation
Way of life creep is the friendliest-looking ghost, till it strangles your financial savings charge. You get a elevate, and all of a sudden your automobile feels outdated, your own home feels small, and coach class appears like punishment.
I fell into this entice myself. Once I first began making good cash in finance in 2007, I justified each indulgence — the brand new automobile, the flamboyant dinners, even a Lake Tahoe apartment I did not want. Much more lately, I bought an costly home in 2023, once we have been completely proud of the one we had bought in 2020. I wasn’t any happier; simply financially constrained at the next degree.
The remedy:
Deal with each elevate prefer it doesn’t exist. Save or make investments it earlier than you even see it. By no means extrapolate your earnings to the moon like I did in 2006.
Remind your self that consolation is the enemy of development. Discover ways to endure with gratitude! Satirically, the toughest a part of monetary independence will not be getting there, it’s sustaining self-discipline after you arrive.
6. Quitting Your Job With No Backup Plan
Would you soar out of a airplane and not using a parachute? In fact not! Quitting your job and not using a plan isn’t any totally different. You’re both wealthy or reckless should you do. Too many individuals storm out of jobs they dislike, generally with out even two weeks’ discover, pushed by impulse slightly than intention.
Some even mistakenly imagine Coast FIRE is a authentic type of monetary independence, however it’s not. It’s really the most harmful early retirement technique should you take it actually. Coast FIRE isn’t any totally different than a employee saving for retirement, however who nonetheless does not have practically sufficient passive earnings.
I’ve coached numerous folks by way of job transitions. The widespread thread amongst those that wrestle most? They stop emotionally, not strategically. They don’t negotiate a severance, they don’t plan their subsequent transfer, and inside months, they’re extra confused than earlier than.
The remedy:
By no means stop empty-handed. Negotiate a severance bundle if attainable. It’s how I left my six-figure finance job in 2012 and purchased myself years of freedom to put in writing and construct Monetary Samurai.
That one strategic exit gave me the boldness to start out a household and dwell life on my phrases. For those who can depart a job with a monetary cushion and your dignity intact, you’ll have conquered one of many scariest transitions of all.
For those who nonetheless must work, do not depart your job with out one other one lined up. With the quantity of layoffs occurring within the title of better productiveness, you could by no means have the ability to discover a comparable one once more.
7. By no means Taking the Dangers You Ought to Have
Because the years cross, you’ll remorse extra of the stuff you didn’t do greater than those you tried. Life has a means of accelerating once you’re not wanting. You’re 18 at some point and 48 the subsequent.
In ten years, you would grasp a talent, construct a enterprise, or utterly reinvent your life. In twenty, you would change your loved ones’s trajectory ceaselessly by constructing multi-generational wealth. However none of that occurs if concern or satisfaction maintain you frozen.
The remedy:
Ask your self: If this have been my final 12 months, what would I remorse not doing? Then begin doing it now.
For me, my largest remorse was ready too lengthy to have youngsters. I can’t change the previous, however I can management my well being, vitality, and perspective to maximise the time I do have with them. Each day I spend with my household is a reminder that motion, even imperfect motion, virtually all the time beats hesitation.
8. Not Letting Your Partner Be Free Too
Some of the unsettling monetary eventualities is when one accomplice reaches freedom whereas the opposite stays trapped. You’ve stop your job, negotiated your severance, and live your greatest life. However your partner continues to be grinding away, exhausted and resentful.
True wealth isn’t about one particular person’s independence; it’s about shared freedom.
The remedy:
Create a joint plan. Set concrete web price, passive earnings, and retirement targets collectively. Evaluation them month-to-month, not yearly.
When you hit your numbers, let the older, extra burned-out accomplice step away first. Attempt a “one in, one out” trial 12 months to see how twin early retirement feels. You’ll be able to all the time return to work or discover supplemental earnings if wanted. However you’ll by no means remorse giving your partner an opportunity to breathe.
Freedom is sweetest when shared. Let your partner out of the dungeon!
Closing Ideas: Worry as a Monetary Superpower
Just a little little bit of concern is wholesome. Actually, concern is the primary ingredient crucial to attain monetary independence and keep that means. It retains you humble, alert, and motivated. The objective isn’t to get rid of concern, it’s to harness it.
For those who can anticipate the scariest eventualities — job loss, debt, market crashes, well being points, poor choices, or relationship misalignments — you may design defenses earlier than they strike.
So this Halloween, as an alternative of watching one other slasher flick, evaluation your funds like I’ve. Examine your emergency fund, rebalance your portfolio, replace your will, and eventually discuss to your partner about your shared objectives.
It may not sound thrilling, however being financially unshakeable as you stroll by way of each economically haunted home feels fairly rattling good.
Reader Questions
- What’s the scariest monetary scenario you’ve ever confronted, and the way did you overcome it?
- Have you ever ever stop your job and not using a plan — and in that case, how did it end up?
- What monetary “monster” are you most afraid of — job loss, medical payments, debt, or way of life creep?
- What are you doing in the present day to make your self extra financially unscareable?
- What’s one monetary mistake that also haunts you — and what did you study from it?
Get An Reasonably priced Life Insurance coverage Coverage
Of all of the actually terrifying monetary conditions, the scariest one by far is leaving this earth too quickly whereas your youngsters nonetheless depend upon you. As dad and mom, our primary mission is to outlive and supply till our kids can stand on their very own — ideally by way of faculty. Failing to guard them, even accidentally, can be our biggest failure.
That’s why I strongly suggest getting a time period life insurance coverage coverage when you’ve got debt or dependents. My spouse and I every obtained matching 20-year time period insurance policies by way of Policygenius — it was fast, inexpensive, and gave us speedy peace of thoughts understanding our children will likely be OK, it doesn’t matter what occurs to us.
Subscribe To Monetary Samurai
Choose up a duplicate of my USA TODAY nationwide bestseller, Millionaire Milestones: Easy Steps to Seven Figures. I’ve distilled over 30 years of economic expertise that will help you construct extra wealth than 94% of the inhabitants—and break away sooner. Amazon is having a tremendous vacation sale.
Hear and subscribe to The Monetary Samurai podcast on Apple or Spotify. I interview consultants of their respective fields and talk about a number of the most fascinating matters on this web site. Your shares, scores, and opinions are appreciated.
To expedite your journey to monetary freedom, be part of over 60,000 others and subscribe to the free Monetary Samurai e-newsletter. It’s also possible to get my posts in your e-mail inbox as quickly as they arrive out by signing up right here. Monetary Samurai is among the many largest independently-owned private finance web sites, established in 2009. Every little thing is written based mostly on firsthand expertise and experience.
