When the Toronto Blue Jays acquired Shane Bieber within the midst of his Tommy John surgical procedure rehab, the perfect the workforce might hope for was that he’d be capable of replicate his previous success.
In Bieber’s seven MLB seasons earlier than 2025, he’s managed totally different ranges of effectiveness starting from a near-unhittable Cy Younger winner (2020) to a mid-rotation calibre starter with a 3.80 ERA and worse peripherals (2023). It wasn’t fully clear what model of Bieber the Blue Jays had been going to get once they dealt for him, but it surely felt honest to imagine his arsenal would intently resemble the one which he featured with the Cleveland Guardians.
From velocity to pitch combine, nothing feels actually unprecedented, however the evolution of Bieber’s changeup makes what he’s that includes as a Blue Jay distinct from his repertoire with Cleveland. It’s not utterly transformative, but it surely’s a big growth — and will play a job in how the right-hander matches up in opposition to potential playoff opponents.
Thus far, Bieber’s changeup has been one in all his least essential choices, which he’s not often turned to in high-leverage moments. Between 2021 and 2023, as an example, he used the change lower than 5 per cent of the time in every season and didn’t earn a single strikeout with it.
In 5 begins, it’s remained a complementary pitch, but it surely’s grow to be essential to his strategy in opposition to left-handed hitters with a career-high 18.4 per cent utilization price. It’s already struck out 4 hitters — together with Bieber’s second Okay in a Blue Jays uniform.
The weird offspeed pitch averages 89.2 m.p.h., and it is generated a wholesome 46.2 per cent whiff price and an xwOBA in opposition to of .168. It’s removed from the only purpose that the 51 left-handed hitters who’ve confronted Bieber this season are slashing .143/.176/.163 and placing out 37.3 per cent of the time — but it surely’s up there.
These numbers come from a sufficiently small pattern to justify skepticism.
In any case, we’re speaking about one of many tertiary pitches within the repertoire of a pitcher who’s made 5 begins. With out additional context, most of that may be safely ignored, however the significant context is that the vertical motion on the pitch has improved radically.
The change Bieber is throwing now’s tougher than it is ever been, whereas concurrently falling off the desk over 10 inches additional than it did earlier in his profession.
In Bieber’s two-start cameo in 2024, there have been indicators of what we’re seeing now because the right-hander threw his change extra typically than he had prior to now (13.3 per cent), elevated its velocity to 89.0 m.p.h., and even obtained three punchouts with it. The distinction in 2025 is that there’s a radical enchancment in its motion.
The hole between the place he was final season and 2025 is evident to the bare eye. Here’s a changeup from 2024 with 28 inches of vertical break (roughly his changeup common that season of 28.1).
If that appears like a wonderfully good changeup to you, honest sufficient. Its downward motion could be very near common, simply 1.5 inches lower than ‘comparable’ changeups, which Statcast defines as choices of the identical kind ‘inside two m.p.h. and 0.5 toes of extension/launch level.’
In 2025, the change Bieber options drops noticeably extra. Right here’s a changeup from this season with 35 inches of vertical break (which is roughly his common of 35.3):
Now that pitch has 4.6 inches extra vertical motion than comparable choices. That’s the most important horizontal or vertical motion outlier amongst any of Bieber’s 5 pitches.
This new-look changeup is a pitch Bieber has thrown simply 60 instances within the majors, making it too early to confidently challenge the way it impacts his outlook. As promising as its mixture of velocity and motion is, the right-hander should find the pitch successfully to get probably the most out of it.
On the similar time, it’s already affordable to say that Bieber is a extra uncomfortable at-bat for a left-hander hitter than he was. That notion is supported by the promise in his changeup and his outcomes in opposition to them this season.
Bieber’s signature breaking balls, his slider and knuckle curve, each function glove-side break that tends to be simpler in opposition to right-handers than lefty bats. Earlier than 2025, left-handers had respectable outcomes in opposition to Bieber (.245 AVG, .409 SLG, 1.18 HR/9) whereas right-handers floundered (.228 AVG, .355 SLG, 0.85 HR/9). He’s now geared up with probably the most compelling weapon he’s ever had that breaks arm-side, away from left-handers.
That would make a big distinction within the playoffs. Three different American League groups which can be close to sure to make the post-season — the New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers, and Seattle Mariners — constantly deploy six left-handed (or switch-hitting) place gamers in opposition to righty starters. These matchups really feel much less daunting for Bieber than they could’ve been in earlier years.
Contemplating the 30-year-old is a two-time all-star with a Cy Younger Award on his shelf, it’s secure to say there has by no means been a surefire technique for placing up runs in opposition to him. In previous years, the closest factor can be stacking a lineup with left-handed hitters and hoping for the perfect, and because of his evolving changeup, even that concept is dropping steam.
