How Bo Bichette’s subsequent contract may stack up in shortstop market

As Bo Bichette has returned to kind all through 2025, an increasing number of consideration has fallen on the potential of getting the pending free agent below contract past this season — and what that contract may appear like.

Bichette’s .294/.336/.463 slash line is basically equal to his profession common (.291/.333/.466) with a barely higher wRC+ (122 vs. 120), proving that 2024 is behind him, and at age 27, he’s more likely to have loads of good years forward.

The shortstop is the kind of homegrown star that groups hate to lose, and his mixture of youth and manufacturing will make him enticing to a number of golf equipment within the free-agent market.

As a two-time All-Star with 19 profession fWAR in his again pocket, pacing for a 3.7 fWAR season, even with below-average defensive numbers on his ledger, Bichette is on his approach to a large deal. To assist perceive exactly what that’ll appear like, we’ve acquired some current precedent to lean on.

For the reason that 2021-22 low season, six completely different above-average beginning shortstops have reached free company and signed nine-figure contracts of six years or extra. These are the perfect locations to begin in relation to determining the place Bichette is at. 

Some notable shortstop offers signed currently that you’ll not see included under:

Francisco Lindor – Lindor’s contract is an extension signed earlier than he hit free company, however extra importantly, he’s in a distinct class of participant than Bichette. 

Bichette is a superb participant, however he’s not an inner-circle celebrity like Lindor.

Carlos Correa – Correa’s preliminary free company/subsequent contract have been severely affected by failed physicals.

Bobby Witt Jr./Wander Franco — These offers have been signed properly earlier than free company, shopping for out arbitration and pre-arb years.

Contract: Six years, $140 million with a 2025 opt-out and a $25 million 2028 membership possibility with a $5 million buyout
Contract Years: 2022-27 with a 2028 membership possibility. 
Age in First Season: 29
Profession Statistics at Signing: .272/.340/.523 in 3,316 plate appearances for a 111 wRC+ with +17 OAA and 20.3 fWAR
Platform Season (2021): .251/.329/.471 in 595 plate appearances for a 98 wRC+ with -7 OAA and a pair of.2 fWAR
Resume Boosters: Two-time All-Star, two-time Silver Slugger 

How he Compares to Bichette: On the floor, this would appear like an unfair comparability for Bichette. That’s partly due to how poorly this deal has gone for the Boston Crimson Sox and partly as a result of Story was coming off a middling yr earlier than it was signed.

The case for Story as a Bichette comparable is that he’d been a real all-around star in 2018 and 2019, incomes a Silver Slugger in every season whereas offering robust defence.

Even so, Story’s offensive inconsistency and uninspiring platform season made it tough for him to land a really huge contract, and that has proven up throughout his time in Boston.

If Bichette can’t beat this contract, he’ll have motive to be awfully disenchanted along with his illustration.

Contract: Seven years, $177 million 
Contract Years: 2023-2029
Age in First Season: 29
Profession Statistics at Signing: .255/.321/.417 in 3,387 plate appearances for a 94 wRC+ with +32 OAA and 16.1 fWAR
Platform Season (2022): 277/.329/.447 in 696 plate appearances for a 117 wRC+ with +20 OAA and 6.6 fWAR
Resume Boosters: One-time All-Star, one Gold Glove

How he Compares to Bichette: Swanson’s profession earlier than he landed with the Chicago Cubs was terribly completely different than Bichette’s.

As a substitute of offering year-to-year offensive consistency, he slowly went from a poor hitter for the Atlanta Braves to an above-average one as his profession progressed — offering wonderful defence alongside the best way.

His general numbers earlier than inking his deal don’t match Bichette’s, however within the three years earlier than he landed it, his fWAR ranked 14th amongst all place gamers. Add in a unprecedented platform season, and it’s comprehensible that Swanson’s agent was in a position to get him such a profitable deal.

Thus far in his Cubs profession, Swanson’s upward offensive trajectory has stalled out, however his stellar defence has made him a strong funding.

His contract is an inexpensive comparability for Bichette, who has a much better offensive observe document and will argue that his offence is more likely to age higher than Swanson’s defence. Such a defence-oriented shortstop may not retain worth deeper into his thirties, and wields a bat that wouldn’t play significantly properly at different positions.

Any Swanson vs. Bichette debate is a matter of style to some extent. The previous’s glove and profession trajectory have been interesting; the latter’s bat is considerably higher, and he has youth on his aspect.

Contract: Seven years, $182 million 
Contract Years: 2025-2031
Age in First Season: 29
Profession Statistics at Signing: .248/.322/.444 in 3,610 plate appearances for a 110 wRC+ with +14 OAA and 21.5 fWAR
Platform Season (2024): .251/.331/.462 in 688 plate appearances for a 121 wRC+ with 0 OAA and 4.9 fWAR
Resume Boosters: One top-10 MVP end (tenth, 2024)

How he compares to Bichette: That is in all probability the candy spot for a Bichette comp. 

Not solely was this contract signed final low season, however stylistically, Adames is extra just like the Blue Jays shortstop than Swanson. 

He nonetheless entered free company with a much less potent bat and extra dependable glove than Bichette, however his bat was above-average, and he had three seasons with a wRC+ of 120 or higher when the San Francisco Giants signed him.

Adames performs robust defence, however his price isn’t as tied up in his glove as Swanson’s is, so he’s a bit of bit nearer to Bichette by way of how his worth is allotted. 

You can make a case for both being a greater participant. The offensive manufacturing Adames produces tends to range considerably from yr to yr, as he has two below-average offensive seasons below his belt and could possibly be headed for a 3rd in 2025. 

Bichette is extra in keeping with the bat and a greater wager to hit properly sufficient to be viable at one other place later in his profession. On the identical time, the defensive hole is notable, and Adames may last more at brief than Bo.  

The Giants’ shortstop can also be an awesome energy risk with two 30-plus residence run seasons below his belt, and the 16.0 fWAR run he produced within the 4 years earlier than his contract is stronger than something Bichette has produced in the same span.

Of the six contracts right here, this one is the clear start line of a Bichette deal.

Contract: 11 Years, $280 million
Contract Years: 2023-2033
Age in First Season: 30
Profession Statistics at Signing: .292/.356/.459 in 5,339 plate appearances for a 118 wRC+ with -34 OAA and 34.0 fWAR
Platform Season (2022): .307/.377/.456 in 631 plate appearances for a 133 wRC+ with +5 OAA and 6.0 fWAR
Resume Boosters: 4-time All-Star, five-time Silver Slugger, one top-5 MVP End (2019)

How he compares to Bichette: This contract appeared a bit wealthy on the time and hasn’t aged significantly properly for the San Diego Padres.

The excellent news for Bichette is that that is an instance of a shortstop being richly rewarded for his offensive contributions regardless of wobbly defensive metrics. The Bogaerts deal extends far previous the time when he’s more likely to be a viable shortstop, and that’s how groups are more likely to be pondering with Bichette, baking ready change someplace in his thirties. 

This contract was signed deeper into Bogaerts’ profession than Bichette is now, as the previous Boston Crimson Sox shortstop exercised an opt-out clause from a $132 million extension he signed in 2019. Meaning he was a extra completed participant than Bichette, coming off a extra spectacular season.

Between 2018 and 2022, Bogaerts ranked thirteenth amongst all place gamers in fWAR and twenty first amongst certified hitters in wRC+. In Bichette’s 5 seasons instantly earlier than free company (2021-2025), he ranks fortieth in fWAR and 62nd in wRC+. That’s a large hole.  

Contract: 11 years, $300 million
Contract Years: 2023-2033
Age in First Season: 30 
Profession Statistics at Signing: .302/.355/.487 in 3,737 plate appearances for a 124 wRC+ with +11 OAA and 32.9 fWAR
Platform Season (2022): .298/.343/.466 in 708 plate appearances for a 128 wRC+ with 0 OAA and 6.4 fWAR
Resume Boosters: Two-time All-Star, one Silver Slugger, one top-5 MVP end (2021). World Sequence champion (2019)

How he compares to Bichette: Very similar to Lindor above, Turner is in a little bit of a distinct class than Bichette. 

Each his 2021 and 2022 seasons, earlier than his contract was signed, have been considerably higher than something Toronto’s shortstop has produced but. He’s a prototypical leadoff man, and he comes with a notable playoff pedigree.

He’s a few years older than Bo, and his profession offensive numbers aren’t significantly dissimilar, whereas he lacks the sterling defensive repute of lots of the others on the checklist.

That stated, Turner is likely one of the few gamers whose baserunning really strikes the needle. Since his debut, he has led the majors in stolen bases (305) and BsR (+64.4), which has been sufficient to take him from an awesome offence-first beginning shortstop to an all-around star.

Contract: 10 Years, $325 million
Contract Years: 2022-2031
Age in First Season: 28
Profession Statistics at Signing: .297/.367/.504 in 2,710 plate appearances for a 132 wRC+ with -17 OAA and 21.9  fWAR
Platform Season (2021): .306/.394/.521 in 409 plate appearances for a 146 wRC+ with -5 OAA and three.8 fWAR
Resume Boosters: Two-time All-Star, one Silver Slugger, World Sequence champion and MVP (2020), Rookie of the Yr (2016), one top-3 MVP end (2016)

How he compares to Bichette: Seager can also be in a distinct tier to Bichette general, significantly when a few of his playoff achievements — even earlier than becoming a member of the Texas Rangers — are thought of.

On the identical time, he reached free company on the identical age as Bichette with a reasonably comparable profession fWAR quantity. His deal represents an instance of groups’ willingness to pay for youth and manufacturing even when there are different blemishes.

In Seager’s case, sturdiness was a major concern, and his defensive metrics weren’t significantly spectacular. The Rangers wager on a bat that could possibly be spectacular and a glove that will be serviceable. They’ve gained that wager handily — significantly as Seager has discovered one other gear along with his energy, producing three straight 30-plus residence run seasons  — and different groups may take discover of the mannequin.

Nonetheless, even earlier than Seager joined Texas, he was exhibiting indicators of his offensive development, and he projected to be a middle-of-the-lineup power in a manner that Bichette doesn’t at this level in his profession.

The Elephant within the Room: Second Base

Thus far, we’ve alluded to considerations about Bichette defensively, with out elaborating on them a lot. Bichette persistently grades out as a below-average defender, which has usually been nice due to his wonderful offensive manufacturing.

Nevertheless, the extent of his unfavourable defensive worth may be disqualifying for some groups. A have a look at his Statcast percentiles for Outs Above Common and Dash Velocity throws up purple flags for his capability to deal with essentially the most athletically demanding place within the sport long run:

Bichette has had the odd season with higher outcomes, however the defensive grades are persistently poor, and his velocity has declined considerably. 

Add in thirtieth percentile arm energy, and a few groups probably see him as a second baseman in the present day, not at some later level over a prolonged contract. That’s not nice information for Bichette, contemplating how few gamers on the place make huge cash. Solely Marcus Semien, Jose Altuve, and Javier Báez are on contracts with a median annual worth north of $20 million, which is a quantity Bichette might be hoping to blow previous.

The contract at second that makes essentially the most sense as a comparable for Bichette is Báez’s deal (six years, $140 million with an opt-out), which is basically the identical as Story’s. Getting one thing in that ballpark can be a disappointing end result for Bichette, although. Notably since he’s a yr youthful than these two gamers have been when their offers have been signed, and each have been inked earlier than the 2022 season.

Chances are high, the query of Bichette’s defensive viability at brief will restrict the breadth of his market somewhat than miserable the greenback worth of his contract instantly. Bichette and his illustration will go to market asking for a deal befitting of a younger beginning shortstop, and golf equipment that suppose he’s higher suited to a different place instantly gained’t make critical provides until that stance shifts. 

Worries about Bichette’s defensive manufacturing make him a extra difficult free-agent case than most shortstops who’ve established themselves as above-average starters and change into out there earlier than their twenty eighth birthdays.

Taking a look at offensive numbers alone would provide the impression that Bichette is more likely to rating a contract just like a few of MLB’s largest names, however the perfect current comparable might be Adames, who has by no means appeared in an All-Star sport or gained a serious award.

Bichette’s youth is an enormous deal as a result of he has yet another yr of his prime to placed on supply. There’s additionally inflation — and brokers’ need to outdo one another — to contemplate. 

With these two elements in thoughts, we will add $1 million in AAV and one yr to the Adames deal and discover a affordable start line, giving us an eight-year, $216 million contract.

Groups which are essentially the most bearish on Bichette’s defensive talents wouldn’t even ponder a deal like that, nevertheless it solely takes one membership to be intoxicated by the thought of him as a long-term lineup fixture.